Research has revealed that only 10 percent of migrants from West and Central Africa intend to travel to Europe, challenging widespread perceptions that the continent’s migration crisis is primarily driven by people seeking better economic opportunities overseas.
A study by the Immigration Policy Lab (IPL), drawing on data collected by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), has found that most migrants move within Africa, with economic pressures being the leading motivation for their journeys.
The findings are based on surveys conducted between 2018 and 2019 at 36 migration transit points across six West and Central African countries.
During this period, the IOM recorded more than 4.5 million migrants passing through the region and surveyed over 88,000 of them about their backgrounds, destinations and reasons for moving.
The research found that 74 percent of respondents cited economic factors, including the search for employment and seasonal work, as reasons for migrating.
Another 25 percent identified family-related considerations, such as joining relatives or friends, while only 3.5 percent said fear for their personal safety influenced their decision.
The findings challenge the perception, reinforced by international media coverage of overcrowded migrant boats crossing the Mediterranean, that Europe is the principal destination for African migrants.
Indeed, 70 percent of those intending to remain within Africa said they planned to move to a country neighbouring their country of departure.
Among the small proportion seeking to settle in Europe, Nigerians accounted for 78 percent, despite representing only 16 percent of the overall migrant population surveyed.
The study also established that migrants intending to travel to Europe were more likely to be single and unemployed, but generally had higher levels of education than those planning to remain in Africa.
About 91 percent had secondary education or higher, compared with 42 percent among migrants intending to stay within the continent.
Men accounted for the majority of migrants, with women representing only 17 percent of those moving within Africa. However, women constituted a larger proportion of migrants whose decisions were influenced by family considerations.
The researchers cautioned that migration decisions are often complex and that the reasons people report may not capture all the underlying circumstances. For instance, someone who cites the search for employment may also be affected by insecurity or other conditions that have weakened economic opportunities at home.
The study also highlighted the importance of accurately interpreting migration statistics. Because some transit points recorded more migrants than others, and individuals could be surveyed repeatedly as they travelled, researchers adjusted the data to minimise duplication and sampling bias.
Their weighted analysis estimated that only 10 percent intended to travel to Europe, compared with 23 percent under an unadjusted calculation.
The findings are significant for policymakers, particularly European governments whose migration policies have increasingly focused on border enforcement, deportations and efforts to discourage irregular migration.
In 2015, Niger criminalised human smuggling amid pressure from European governments. The European Union also expanded border policing and established an emergency trust fund, committing more than €4.5 billion to projects intended to address the root causes of irregular migration in West and Central Africa.
The researchers argue that effective migration policies must be informed by reliable evidence about where people are travelling, why they leave and how their decisions are influenced by economic, family and security conditions.
They say further research into the overlapping and changing motivations behind migration is necessary to develop a more comprehensive understanding of human movement across Africa.
Courtesy of Immigration Policy Lab