As world leaders meet in New York for the second International Migration Review Forum (IMRF), one key question dominates discussions: Is the Global Compact for Migration improving the lives of migrants?
The answer is yes — but with serious challenges.
Adopted in 2018, the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration was designed to make migration safer and more humane through international cooperation. While some progress has been recorded, migration routes are becoming increasingly dangerous as governments tighten border controls and smugglers adapt.
According to the International Organization for Migration’s 2025 Global Overview of Migration Routes, migration patterns across the Middle East, North Africa and Europe are shifting rapidly. Although arrivals to Europe have declined on several routes, deaths and disappearances continue to rise.
In 2025, more than 66,500 migrants reached Italy and Malta through the Central Mediterranean Route, nearly the same as the previous year. Arrivals along the Eastern Mediterranean Route — covering Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria — dropped by about 30 percent, while crossings to Spain and the Canary Islands also declined sharply.
At first glance, these figures may suggest reduced migration pressure. However, the reality is more alarming. On the Eastern Mediterranean Route, deaths and disappearances almost doubled within a year. Along the Atlantic route to the Canary Islands, the number of deaths remained high despite fewer crossings, meaning migrants faced an even greater risk of dying at sea.
The Central Mediterranean remains one of the deadliest migration corridors in the world, with more than 1,300 people confirmed dead in 2025 alone.
These trends show that stricter border enforcement does not necessarily stop migration. Instead, it often forces migrants onto longer, more fragmented and more dangerous journeys controlled by criminal smuggling networks.
The conflict in Sudan highlights how crises continue to drive displacement across entire regions. Since war erupted in April 2023, Sudan has become the world’s largest displacement crisis. More than 11.5 million people were displaced at the height of the conflict. Although some have returned home, nearly 9 million people remain displaced.
Many Sudanese migrants are now appearing along Mediterranean migration routes, not out of choice, but because conflict, poverty and insecurity have left them with few alternatives.
Migration pressures are also being intensified by economic hardship, youth unemployment and climate change. Across the Middle East and North Africa, unemployment among young people remains extremely high, while droughts, floods and heatwaves continue to worsen living conditions and fuel displacement.
The report argues that governments must urgently strengthen search-and-rescue operations and improve international cooperation to save lives. Declining arrival numbers should not be mistaken for reduced danger.
It also calls for expanding safe and legal migration pathways, including labour mobility programmes, humanitarian visas and family reunification systems. Without such options, desperate migrants are more likely to rely on smugglers and dangerous irregular routes.
The International Migration Review Forum is therefore being viewed as a crucial opportunity for countries to recommit themselves to practical cooperation. Better data sharing, stronger protection systems and coordinated action against trafficking networks will be essential if migrant deaths are to be reduced.
Ultimately, migration is not disappearing. The challenge facing governments is whether migration will be managed safely and humanely — or continue becoming deadlier for the world’s most vulnerable people.
By International Organization for Migration Regional Director for MENA, Othman Belbeisi